04-02-2024 S&P 500 Short-term Update

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS (by Intraday Dynamics)

What Is an Island Reversal?

S&P 500 Index Hourly HLC

The S&P 500 gapped into lower trade on Tuesday and the cash index now has a large 7-day, island top on the hourly chart. (The daily SPY shows the same large island.) The hourly reached oversold conditions in Tuesday’s trade. Prices gapped under a steep trendline and tested the last breakout area, and pulled up just short of support at 5180. A continued breakdown under 5180 should test 5155 with potential to pivotal short-term support at 5129/5125. Daily closes under 5125 can carry to 5045/5038 with counts to 4977 and critical short-term support of 4909/4905. A breakdown under 4905 sets up a move to 4587. Closes under 4587 give counts to 4378 with potential to daily support at 4168/4160.

SPY Daily H-L-C

Resistance is 5215, 5224 and pivotal at 5233/5235. Rallies over 5235 should test 5244/5245 and opens potential back to 5264/5265. A drive over 5265 counts to 5288. Closes over 5288 will open counts into the 5432 level. A breakout over 5432 will open potential to the 5576 with counts into the 5720 area. Closes over 5720 offer upside targets at 6000/6008. 

Resistance

  • 5215 **
  • 5224 ***
  • 5233/5235 *** ↑
  • 5244/5245 ** ↑
  • 5255 **
  • 5264/5265 *** ↑
  • 5288 *** ↑
  • 5306 ***
  • 5324 **
  • 5342 **
  • 5360 ***
  • 5378 **
  • 5396 **
  • 5432 *** ↑
  • 5468 **
  • 5504 **
  • 5540 **
  • 5576 *** ↑
  • 5612 **
  • 5648 **
  • 5684 ***
  • 5720 *** ↑
  • 5756 **
  • 5792 **
  • 5828 **
  • 5864 *** ↑
  • 5936 **
  • 6008 *** ↑
  • 6044 **
  • 6080 *** ↑
  • 6116 **
  • 6152 ***
Support

  • 5184 **
  • 5180 *** ↓
  • 5155 ***
  • 5129/5125 *** ↓
  • 5104 **
  • 5092 ** gap
  • 5080 *** ↓fills gap
  • 5055 **
  • 5045/5038 *** ↓ hourly gap
  • 5020 **
  • 5000 ** ↓
  • 4983 *** fills gap
  • 4977 *** ↓
  • 4956 **
  • 4930 **
  • 4909/4905 *** ↓
  • 4876 **
  • 4866 ** ↓
  • 4846 **
  • 4828 **
  • 4808 ***
  • 4790 **
  • 4775/4774 *** ↓
  • 4764 *** ↓
  • 4733 **
  • 4714 *** ↓
  • 4699 **
  • 4682 ***
  • 4663 **
  • 4646 **
  • 4607 ** ↓
  • 4587 *** ↓
  • 4566 **
  • 4510 *** ↓
  • +++++++++++
  • 4378 *** ↓
  • 4168/4160 *** ↓

 Charts courtesy of CQG, Inc., and Trading View

Journal

VMSI INDEX

Housing Market: Late-Cycle Strain, Repricing Likely by 2026

Sources: National Association of REALTORS®, BLS, VMSI The U.S. housing market is showing clear late-cycle characteristics. Prices remain elevated, yet ...
News

Mandate Clarity Is Monetary Power

By VICA Partners | July 2025(Peer-reviewed by institutional market strategists and asset managers) The Federal Reserve’s policy efficacy is increasingly ...
VMSI INDEX

Conviction Builds as Volatility Slides and Rotation Widens

VMSI Edges to 57.4 as Breadth Firms, Tactical Hedging Further Fades, July 17, 2025 | VICA Research — Volatility & ...