MARKETS TODAY March 28th, 2023 (Vica Partners)
Good Tuesday Afternoon,
Yesterday, after opening higher major US indices ended the session mixed as DOW led gainers. Energy and Financials sectors were up >2% while Tech and mega-cap -growth lagged. Yields rose across the curve with 2/10 spread rising, Oil futures up >4%.
Overnight, Asian markets finished mixed as the Hang Seng gained 1.11%, the Nikkei 225 rose 0.15%. The Shanghai Composite down 0.19%. S&P futures traded up 0.5% at the highs overnight. Premarket, European markets finished higher today with shares in London leading the region. The FTSE 100 up 0.17%, France’s CAC 40 up 0.14% and Germany’s DAX was up 0.09%. S&P futures were trading at 0.1% below fair-value.
In US Markets today, Indices lower with Nasdaq/FANG+ leading decliners. 8 of 11 of the S&P 500 sectors were higher/ Energy, Materials outperform while Information Technology lagged. The Bloomberg Commodity Index, Oil futures, Gold and Bitcoin were all up. In economic news, Wholesale/Retail inventories rise above estimates, Home Prices continue moderate and U.S. consumer confidence improves.
Takeaways
- Market concerned about further rate increases
- Energy and Materials outperform while Tech lags
- Yields rise across the curve (10-2 yield spread rising -0.51)
- Fear & Greed Index rating moderating = 38/ Fear
- Bloomberg Commodity Index rises
Pro Tip, The global lithium market was worth $7.1 billion in 2021, and forecasted to be valued at $15.45b by 2028, CAGR of 11.75% from 2022- 2028. Vica forecasts that supply will grow by circa >30% per annum against demand growth of >20% through to 2025.
Sectors/ Commodities/ Treasuries
Key Indexes (50d, 100d, 200d)
S&P Sectors
- 8 of 11 of the S&P 500 sectors were higher. Energy +1.40%, Materials +0.81% outperform/ Health Care -0.56%, Information Technology -0.21% underperform.
Commodities
US Treasuries
Notable Earnings This Week (+beat-miss*buy support)
+ BioNTech (BNTX), Walgreens Boots (WBA), McCormick&Co (MKC), Carnival Corp (CCL), PVH (PVH)
– Anhui Conch Cement Co (AHCHY), Huazhu (HTHT)
* Strong Buy Support – Baidu Inc (BIDU), Sociedad Quimica y Minera de Chile (SQM), Alibaba Group Holdings (BABA)
Economic Data
US
- Advanced U.S. trade balance; per Feb., act -$91.6b, fc -$90.0b, prev. -$91.1B
- Advanced retail inventories; period Feb., act 0.8%, fc 0.2%, prev. 0.1%
- Advanced wholesale inventories; period Feb., act 0.2%, fc 0.1%, prev. -0.5%
- S&P Case-Shiller home price index; period Jan., act 2.6%, fc 2.5%, prev.4.6%
- FHFA home price index; period Jan., act 5.3%, fc 5.7%, prev. 6.6%
- U.S. consumer confidence; period March, act 104.2 , fc 100.7, prev. 102.9
News
Company News/ Other
- China’s Alibaba to break up empire into six units as Jack Ma returns home – Reuters
- Binance accused of breaking US financial laws – BBC
- US, Japan strike trade deal on electric vehicle battery minerals – Reuters
Central Banks/Inflation/Labor Market
- Live Updates: Regulators Blame Banks’ Mismanagement for Failure – NY Times
- ECB Says Regulators Should Review CDS Market After Bank Turmoil – Bloomberg
- Dollar slips as banking sector fears ebb – Reuters
China
- China launches new AI programme as race against the US for supremacy heats up – South China Morning Post
