MARKETS TODAY Sept 28 (Vica Partners) – The S&P 500 up .57% as of 10:25 a.m. Eastern. The Dow Jones Industrial Average up 166 points, or .56%, to 29,298. The tech based Nasdaq up 0.30%
The markets continue to rise today on pending home sales data and most importantly Powell’s remarks at the banking conference today. The Dow Jones Industrial Average looks to end it’s a seventh straight decline. The 10-year Treasury yield tops 4% its highest level since September 2010. Oil prices are rising with Brent crude +1.50% and US West Texas Intermediate crude +2.30%.
CSBS Releases 2022 National Survey of Community Banks
With Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell set to give welcome remarks before the 2022 Community Banking Research Conference.
According to the Conference of State Bank Supervisors’ (CSBS) 2022 annual National Survey of Community Banks, community bankers across the nation ranked net interest margins, economic conditions and loan demand as their highest external risks. Inflation was described as a persistent, but manageable challenge.
The Pending Home Sales Index (PHS)
August 2022 pending home sales were down 2.0% from July and slightly off a consensus forecast at 1.4%, and contract signings fell year-over-year by double-digit percentages in each region of the U.S.
The Pending Home Sales Index (PHS), a leading indicator of housing activity, measures housing contract activity, and is based on signed real estate contracts for existing single-family homes, condos, and co-ops. Because a home goes under contract a month or two before it is sold, the Pending Home Sales Index generally leads Existing-Home Sales by a month or two.
IMPORTANT TO READ as we forecast that inflation will turn into deflation
The Federal Reserve will be forced to cut interest rates in 2023 if a deep recession occurs as the cure for inflation is not just raising rates. As we see a significant policy change coming by late Spring of 2023 with Powell reversing direction… just look at 12 month declining lower commodity pricing and new reports on rising retail inventories.
Yearly commodity prices continue to drop include: iron. Copper and crude oil
Solid strategy for these type of market days ….
We suggest investing in companies that have solid balance sheets and offer dividends.
Best to continue to cost average buy value stocks and resist most all tech and growth stocks where companies have negative margins. Our Teams forecast a negative 10-13% valuation correction for speculative stocks. DON’T try to time market lows!
*** Look to Index ETF’s like SPY to outperform stocks and most managed funds
*** Energy is the Top Performing Sector in S&P 500 Year to Date and will regain strength shortly
