The Overnight Drift a Cumulative Return of +1,700%

INVESTORS SERIES The “night effect” references the strategy of buying the S&P 500 at the close and selling it at the next day’s open every single day. From 1991 through 2021, the S&P 500’s overnight session delivered a cumulative return of more than 1,700%, while the intraday sessions delivered a negative cumulative return. Backtests of … Read more

US Jobless Claims Total 231,000 Last Week, Falling the Prior Week’s Upwardly Revised 233,000

GOVERNMENT REPORT SERIES UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE WEEKLY CLAIMS Initial jobless claims were down last week, and were marginally lower than Govt forecast; as investors continue to assess the labor market for potential signs of a slowdown. SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA In the week ending June 25, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 231,000, a … Read more

Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Decreased at an Annual Rate of 1.6% in the First Quarter of 2022

GOVERNMENT REPORT SERIES Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 1.6 percent in the first quarter of 2022, according to the “third” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter of 2021, real GDP increased 6.9 percent. The “third” estimate of GDP released today is based on more … Read more

CCI Index Drops to Lowest Level Since February 2021 as Expectations Continue to Decline

GOVERNMENT REPORT SERIES The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® decreased in June, following a decline in May. The Index fell to 98.7 (1985=100)—down 4.5 points from 103.2 in May—and now stands at its lowest level since February 2021 (Index, 95.2). “Purchasing intentions for cars, homes, and major appliances held relatively steady—but intentions have cooled since … Read more

Monthly Advance Report on Durable Goods May 2022

GOVERNMENT REPORT SERIES Orders at U.S. factories for long-lasting goods and heavy machinery rose 0.7%, $267.2 billion +0.7%in May, a stronger than expected report. Economists had forecast a 0.2% advance. It was the seventh gain in the last eight months. Viewed by investors as a signal of future business; factories are still producing a lot … Read more

Building Blocks of Quantitative Finance, Statements

Building Blocks of Quantitative Finance Part A

INVESTOR SERIES Proper financial analysis will not only help you understand your company’s financial condition, helping you determine its creditworthiness, profitability and ability to generate wealth, but will also provide you with a more in-depth look at how well it operates internally. Different types of financial analysis Several techniques are commonly used as part of … Read more

+70% Analyst Price Targets are NOT Correct

FACT Analysts price target is a guess linked to their estimates of future performance. Most statistacal backed studies indicate that their overall accuracy rate is around 30% for price 12-18 month targets. As they tend to make long term projections to derive a target price, with a linear exponential thinking and they focus on fundamentals … Read more

Fast Facts of Algorithmic Trading

INVESTOR SERIES Algorithmic trading accounts for around 60-73% of the overall US equity trading (source: Wall Street). Benefits of Algorithmic Trading Benefits: Trades are executed at the best possible prices. Trade order placement is instant and accurate (there is a high chance of execution at the desired levels). Trades are timed correctly and instantly to avoid … Read more