Matthew Krumholz 
VMSI Climbs to 52.7 as Institutions Shift Toward Cautious Optimism June 5, 2025 | VICA Research VICA Partners Research’s VMSI © shows where institutional capital is moving — helping investors cut through noise, manage risk, and stay positioned ahead of the curve. Weekly Snapshot VMSI Score (Weekly Composite): 52.7 (Cautionary Optimism Zone) End-of-Day Market Closes … Read more
By VICA Partners | June 2025 Every few years, financial headlines rediscover U.S. government debt. The tone is always urgent. Yields are rising. Debt-to-GDP is unsustainable. The dollar is at risk. And yet, if you look at how long-term capital — Buffett, pensions, family offices — is actually behaving, the message is clear: This isn’t … Read more
Cautious Optimism Builds as Defensive Posture Persists May 30, 2025 | VICA Research VICA Partners Research’s VMSI © shows where institutional capital is moving — helping investors cut through noise, manage risk, and stay positioned ahead of the curve. Weekly Snapshot VMSI Score: 49.2 (Defensive Zone) S&P 500: –0.01% | Nasdaq: –0.32% | Dow: +0.13% | VIX: 18.57 Momentum: 41.6 | Liquidity: … Read more
The Setup:Long-term U.S. Treasury yields are rising sharply — not just as a headline, but as a structural pivot. After years of flat or inverted curves, we’re now entering a regime where longer-dated yields decisively outpace short-term rates. The 2s/10s spread is near its widest since 2022. Insight: The 2s/10s spread is quietly shifting from … Read more
Defensive Positioning Holds as Volatility Rises May 22, 2025 | VICA Research Weekly Snapshot VMSI Score: 47.4 (Defensive Zone) S&P 500: –0.04% | Nasdaq: +0.28% | Dow: –0.00% | VIX: 20.28 Momentum: 41.6 | Liquidity: 33.7 | Volatility: 66.2 | Safe Haven Demand: 74.0 Markets displayed bifurcated action across key indices, with tech-heavy names lifting the Nasdaq while the Dow and S&P wavered. Despite improving momentum and … Read more
May 15, 2025 | VICA Research Weekly Snapshot VMSI Score: 44.2 (Defensive Zone)S&P 500: +0.41% | Nasdaq: –0.18% | Dow: +0.65% | VIX: 17.83Momentum: 39.0 | Liquidity: 30.2 | Volatility: 59.2 | Safe Haven Demand: 78.4 Markets advanced across major indices this week, but the VICA Market Sentiment Index (VMSI) held firm within the Defensive Zone, rising modestly to 44.2. Institutions are less fearful, but conviction remains … Read more
May 8, 2025 | VICA Research Weekly Snapshot VMSI Score: 38.6 (Defensive Zone) S&P 500: +0.58% | Nasdaq: +1.07% | Dow: +0.62% VIX: 22.48 Momentum: 39.0 | Liquidity: 30.2 | Volatility: 59.2 | Safe Haven Demand: 78.4 Markets rallied across major indices this week, but the VICA Market Sentiment Index (VMSI) held firm within the … Read more
May 1, 2025 | VICA Research Weekly Snapshot VMSI Score: 35.2 (Defensive) S&P 500: +0.36% | Nasdaq: +1.52% | Dow: +0.21% VIX: 24.60 Momentum: 39.6 | Liquidity: 33.1 | Volatility: 55.8 | Safe Haven Demand: 73.5 Despite another strong equity advance, the VICA Market Sentiment Index (VMSI) remains anchored in the Defensive Zone, highlighting continued … Read more
Executive Summary April 2025 marks a critical inflection point in the U.S. housing market. After years of constrained supply, inventory is rising sharply—up 11% year-over-year. More homes are hitting the market in 2025. Inventory is up 11% as mortgage lock-ins fade, younger generations downsize, and builders deliver new homes. Rising costs and future fears are … Read more
(VICA Research | April 27, 2025) Capital moves before narratives confirm. April’s early market fractures point to a liquidity-driven regime transition — a structural realignment that capital allocators must recognize before sentiment data validates the shift. Executive Summary The most consequential shift in global finance is unfolding silently: a liquidity cycle inflection, not captured by … Read more