Avatar photoMatthew Krumholz

Institutions Hold Firm as Powell Looms, Macro Forces Still Favor Risk

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VMSI Institutional Market Intelligence Report — August 28, 2025 Source: VICA Partners VMSI © — Data: Proprietary models & public sources Framing Note Model: EC·F₃·μ + C, enhanced with flow-momentum dynamics. It integrates inertia (mass × acceleration), friction (funding and execution constraints), urgency (deployment pacing), and convexity (amplification when flows meet stable macro). Proprietary drift … Read more

Institutions Balance Risk Ahead of Powell as Macro Support Holds

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VMSI Institutional Market Intelligence Report — August 21, 2025 Source: VICA Partners VMSI © — Data: Proprietary models & public sources Framing Note The EC·F₃·μ model is next-generation market physics. Unlike traditional quant factor screens, it captures inertia (M × a), friction (F₃), and urgency (μ). This resolves what standard quant misses — the persistence … Read more

Institutions Position for Sustained Growth as Macro Tailwinds Align

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VMSI Institutional Market Intelligence Report — August 14, 2025 Source: VICA Partners VMSI © — Data: Proprietary models & public sources Summary — Week Ending Aug 14, 2025 Institutional capital remains fully engaged at structural highs, with macro tailwinds — stable rates, tight credit spreads, steady USD — reinforcing risk deployment. Allocation pacing is disciplined, … Read more

CPI: Expected, Priced, Done

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July CPI: +0.2% MoM, 2.7% YoY (unchanged from June). Core CPI: +0.3% MoM, 3.1% YoY. Key Data Points from July CPI Shelter: +0.2% MoM, +3.7% YoY – still the largest sticky component. Medical care services: +0.8% MoM, +4.3% YoY – accelerating for a second month. Energy: -1.1% MoM, -1.6% YoY – gasoline down 9.5% YoY. … Read more

Quiet Acceleration: VMSI Signals Measured Force Into Growth Risk

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VICA Research — Volatility & Market Sentiment Index (VMSI©) “Directional force is building across the tape — but not indiscriminately. Capital isn’t chasing — it’s calibrating. Institutions are moving first, with velocity, precision, and a strict time-cost bias.” — Matthew Krumholz, CEO, VICA Partners Institutional Summary • Composite VMSI rises to 61.7 — highest this … Read more

Kahneman Meets Newton: Behavioral Bias and Capital Physics in the August 2025 Market

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Executive Summary As of August 1, 2025, the VMSI® composite score sits at 59.8, its highest level since Q1. Institutions are steadily expanding into risk—without chasing it. Capital momentum is deliberate. Volatility is easing. Hedging demand is receding. But behavioral signals tell a different story on the retail side: loss aversion, recency bias, and framing … Read more

Markets Bet on Fed Cut — But Institutions Are Already Moving

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August 4, 2025 | VICA Macro Strategy Note By Matthew Krumholz | Source: VICA Partners Executive Summary A sharp drop in July job creation triggered an aggressive repricing of Federal Reserve expectations. While short-end yields tumbled and Fed cut odds surged, institutional capital quietly rotated into risk. VMSI — VICA’s proprietary Volatility & Market Sentiment … Read more

What Markets Don’t See: Why Markets Discount Physics and Intelligence

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By Matthew Krumholz | VICA Partners The Core Error Markets, even at their most sophisticated, remain anchored in what is familiar and backtestable. High-net-worth allocators and institutional funds alike prize clarity over possibility. Capital follows confidence intervals, not catalytic change. Markets allocate capital based on visible, historical, and quantifiable signals. Financial models optimize for near-term … Read more

Quiet Confidence: VMSI Signals Institutions Are Moving First

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VICA Partners | July 31, 2025, VICA Research — Volatility & Market Sentiment Index (VMSI©) “Institutional positioning continued to build momentum this week as macro volatility faded and sector breadth advanced. With hedging overlays thinning and capital rotating into cyclicals, the VMSI reflects a quiet but growing bias toward risk-on participation.” — Matthew Krumholz, CEO, … Read more