Matthew Krumholz 
Abstract Volatility is no longer telling the truth — the structure is. Under the surface, the cross-asset geometry has shifted again in ways that retail sentiment gauges and headline volatility simply do not capture. The VIX looks calm, but the internal regime is anything but: AI leadership is accelerating, market microstructure is tightening, and the … Read more
Abstract Markets are no longer focused on inflation — policy error and growth risk are now the real threats. Under the surface, the cross-asset structure has shifted in ways that retail sentiment gauges like CNN’s Fear & Greed simply fail to detect. Those indicators plunged into Extreme Fear, but institutional positioning shows a very different … Read more
Liquidity Is Holding the Line While Pricing in a Scare, Not a Break. Abstract Markets behaved this week as though something fundamental had cracked — but the system itself did not. Sentiment collapsed into Extreme Fear, breadth deteriorated to its weakest level since early summer, and safe-haven demand strengthened in a pattern that typically precedes … Read more
November 16, 2025 The Signals Are Turning Before the Story Does The market’s stability is now engineered rather than organic. Breadth has slipped to levels inconsistent with sustainable upside, liquidity concentration is carrying an outsized share of index performance, and the gap between price and participation is now among the widest seen this year. NYSE … Read more
Abstract This paper outlines a structural evolution in market behavior: from policy-dominated price formation to a liquidity-driven, reflexive system in which capital behaves as energy. Using the Krummholz Force 12.3 Model (F = ΔP × L / E), we demonstrate that liquidity elasticity—rather than interest-rate signaling—governs price momentum and volatility asymmetry. Empirical analysis shows that … Read more
Liquidity Compresses — AI Sustains — Credit Defines. Markets remain steady, but conviction is increasingly mechanical. Liquidity keeps valuations suspended — the S&P 500 trades near 20.3× forward earnings, a marginal compression from last week — while leadership remains locked in AI-driven megacaps. Motion endures, yet the source of motion has inverted: flow now creates … Read more
VICA Partners | Op-Ed The Past Is No Guide: Why Financial Markets Have Outgrown Santayana’s Warning (Excerpted and adapted for the VMSI Institutional Confidence Indicator, Nov 2025 Edition) 1. From Cycles to Systems — The Architecture Behind VMSI™ The VMSI framework is not built on “economic cycles.”It’s built on system dynamics — the structural mechanics … Read more
Liquidity Holds — AI Amplifies — Credit Decides. Markets are steady, but conviction is thinning. Liquidity keeps valuations elevated — the S&P 500 trades at 20.4× forward earnings, a four-year high — while the NASDAQ’s gains remain concentrated in a handful of AI-driven megacaps. Flows are automated, not allocative; machines sustain motion where fundamentals no … Read more
VMSI™ Institutional Market Intelligence Report — FORCE-12.2 Institutional Edition Week Ending October 23, 2025 The Persistence Premium Liquidity Buys Time — Credit Prices the Future Markets remain stable, but the margin for error is narrowing. Liquidity holds valuations aloft, with the S&P 500 near 20.2× forward earnings, its highest since 2021, while the NASDAQ’s strength … Read more
VMSI™ Institutional Market Intelligence Report — FORCE-12.2 Institutional Edition. Week Ending October 16 2025 The Calm Holds — Credit Is the Fuse Markets remain suspended in an engineered equilibrium — a system still ruled by liquidity, but increasingly constrained by credit torque. Valuations have climbed to altitude: the Sky High Index sits at the 92nd … Read more