Avatar photoMatthew Krumholz

The Calm Holds — Credit Is the Fuse

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VMSI™ Institutional Market Intelligence Report — FORCE-12.2 Institutional Edition. Week Ending October 16 2025 The Calm Holds — Credit Is the Fuse Markets remain suspended in an engineered equilibrium — a system still ruled by liquidity, but increasingly constrained by credit torque. Valuations have climbed to altitude: the Sky High Index sits at the 92nd … Read more

Liquidity Rules, Credit Waits — The Calm Before Convexity

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VMSI™ Institutional Market Intelligence Report — FORCE-12 Institutional Edition Week Ending October 9 2025 Theme: Liquidity Rules, Credit Waits — The Calm Before Convexity Composite Ignore the late Week noise — this regime is about structure, not NEWS headlines. Liquidity remains the dominant signal; credit is the hinge. Until torque breaches through credit channels, noise … Read more

Continuation Until Credit Breaks

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VMSI: Continuation Until Credit Breaks — Credit/CRE now the hinge (59.3) VMSI Institutional Market Intelligence Report – Week Ending October 2, 2025 Weekly Summary – Week Ending October 2, 2025 The VMSI composite index edged up to 59.3 from 59.1, holding firm above the continuation threshold of 58. Liquidity depth and execution capacity remain the … Read more

Liquidity vs. Credit: The Fracture Line of 2025

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VMSI Institutional Market Intelligence Report – Week Ending September 25, 2025 Weekly Summary – Week Ending September 25, 2025 The VMSI composite index slipped modestly to 59.1 from 59.9, but remains above the continuation threshold of 58. Liquidity depth and execution capacity continue to anchor market resilience. Volatility remains compressed, yet cracks are becoming clearer … Read more

Liquidity Is the Last Word: Why Markets Refuse to Break

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VMSI Institutional Market Intelligence Report – Week Ending September 18, 2025 (Published September 19, 2025) Weekly Summary – Week Ending September 18, 2025 The VMSI composite index ticked higher to 59.9 from 58.9, reinforcing the resilience of structural liquidity in holding the market together. While sector breadth remains mixed and macro signals softened, liquidity depth … Read more

One Bold Convexity Bet: Markets Run on Structure, Not Sentiment

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VMSI Institutional Market Intelligence Report – Week Ending September 11, 2025 (Published September 12, 2025) Weekly Summary – Week Ending September 11, 2025 The VMSI composite index eased to 58.9 from 59.7, still above the 58 “fade” threshold and firmly in the inertia-dominant regime. Momentum in technology cooled, breadth remained mixed, but structural resilience holds. … Read more

Institutions Hold Firm as Powell Looms, Macro Forces Still Favor Risk

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VMSI Institutional Market Intelligence Report — August 28, 2025 Source: VICA Partners VMSI © — Data: Proprietary models & public sources Framing Note Model: EC·F₃·μ + C, enhanced with flow-momentum dynamics. It integrates inertia (mass × acceleration), friction (funding and execution constraints), urgency (deployment pacing), and convexity (amplification when flows meet stable macro). Proprietary drift … Read more

Institutions Balance Risk Ahead of Powell as Macro Support Holds

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VMSI Institutional Market Intelligence Report — August 21, 2025 Source: VICA Partners VMSI © — Data: Proprietary models & public sources Framing Note The EC·F₃·μ model is next-generation market physics. Unlike traditional quant factor screens, it captures inertia (M × a), friction (F₃), and urgency (μ). This resolves what standard quant misses — the persistence … Read more