Matthew Krumholz 
Why volatility is a tradable price — not a structural risk signal VICA Partners | Institutional Market Structure Commentary Abstract Volatility is widely treated as the market’s primary risk signal because it is liquid, measurable, and continuously priced. Yet volatility is not a structural variable. It is the market’s current premium for near-term protection. In … Read more
Why modern markets require a structural model — and what VMSI adds that traditional analysis cannot VICA Partners | Institutional Market Structure Research Abstract The Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) remains foundational to modern finance. It provides a disciplined framework for evaluating whether an asset’s expected return compensates investors for exposure to systematic market risk. … Read more
What Venezuela Reveals About Risk, Oil, and Duration Mispricing VICA Partners | Institutional Market Structure Commentary Abstract Geopolitical shocks consistently produce the same market error: duration is priced before it is confirmed. Oil markets respond immediately to political events, embedding risk premia that often imply persistence without confirmation. In most cases, those implications are not … Read more
VICA Partners | Institutional Market Structure Commentary Abstract Markets are no longer governed by inflation narratives. The dominant risk entering 2026 is policy error interacting with growth fragility inside a late-equilibrium structure. Retail sentiment gauges routinely register fear, yet institutional architecture continues to hold — through liquidity concentration, duration accumulation, and volatility suppression. At the … Read more
VICA Institutional Confidence Indicator (VMSI®) Report | December 19, 2025 Condensed Structural Read VMSI™ FORCE-12.3 | VICA Research Editorial Note (Holiday Format) This report is presented in a temporary condensed format due to the year-end holiday period. Full-length VMSI reports — including expanded component analysis, sector matrices, and institutional positioning tables — will resume immediately … Read more
VICA Market Sentiment Index (VMSI) Report | December 12, 2025, Condensed Structural Read. VMSI™ FORCE-12.3 | VICA Research VMSI Composite: 54.6 — Cautionary Optimism Stability holds, but the cost of maintaining equilibrium continues to rise. Condensed Structural Read — VICA Market Sentiment Index (VMSI®) Executive Summary Market volatility remains deceptively calm, but structural signals tell … Read more
Abstract Volatility is no longer telling the truth — the structure is. Under the surface, the cross-asset geometry has shifted again in ways that retail sentiment gauges and headline volatility simply do not capture. The VIX looks calm, but the internal regime is anything but: AI leadership is accelerating, market microstructure is tightening, and the … Read more
Abstract Markets are no longer focused on inflation — policy error and growth risk are now the real threats. Under the surface, the cross-asset structure has shifted in ways that retail sentiment gauges like CNN’s Fear & Greed simply fail to detect. Those indicators plunged into Extreme Fear, but institutional positioning shows a very different … Read more
Liquidity Is Holding the Line While Pricing in a Scare, Not a Break. Abstract Markets behaved this week as though something fundamental had cracked — but the system itself did not. Sentiment collapsed into Extreme Fear, breadth deteriorated to its weakest level since early summer, and safe-haven demand strengthened in a pattern that typically precedes … Read more
November 16, 2025 The Signals Are Turning Before the Story Does The market’s stability is now engineered rather than organic. Breadth has slipped to levels inconsistent with sustainable upside, liquidity concentration is carrying an outsized share of index performance, and the gap between price and participation is now among the widest seen this year. NYSE … Read more