Matthew Krumholz 
VICA Partners | August 20, 2025 Markets are pricing an ~85% chance of a 25bp cut at the September 16–17 FOMC. Upside: limited if Powell delivers what’s already priced Downside: sharper if he stalls or pushes cuts out This playbook gives you: A scenario grid mapping Fed outcomes to market impact A visual chart for … Read more
VMSI Institutional Market Intelligence Report — August 14, 2025 Source: VICA Partners VMSI © — Data: Proprietary models & public sources Summary — Week Ending Aug 14, 2025 Institutional capital remains fully engaged at structural highs, with macro tailwinds — stable rates, tight credit spreads, steady USD — reinforcing risk deployment. Allocation pacing is disciplined, … Read more
July CPI: +0.2% MoM, 2.7% YoY (unchanged from June). Core CPI: +0.3% MoM, 3.1% YoY. Key Data Points from July CPI Shelter: +0.2% MoM, +3.7% YoY – still the largest sticky component. Medical care services: +0.8% MoM, +4.3% YoY – accelerating for a second month. Energy: -1.1% MoM, -1.6% YoY – gasoline down 9.5% YoY. … Read more
VICA Research — Volatility & Market Sentiment Index (VMSI©) “Directional force is building across the tape — but not indiscriminately. Capital isn’t chasing — it’s calibrating. Institutions are moving first, with velocity, precision, and a strict time-cost bias.” — Matthew Krumholz, CEO, VICA Partners Institutional Summary • Composite VMSI rises to 61.7 — highest this … Read more
Executive Summary As of August 1, 2025, the VMSI® composite score sits at 59.8, its highest level since Q1. Institutions are steadily expanding into risk—without chasing it. Capital momentum is deliberate. Volatility is easing. Hedging demand is receding. But behavioral signals tell a different story on the retail side: loss aversion, recency bias, and framing … Read more
August 4, 2025 | VICA Macro Strategy Note By Matthew Krumholz | Source: VICA Partners Executive Summary A sharp drop in July job creation triggered an aggressive repricing of Federal Reserve expectations. While short-end yields tumbled and Fed cut odds surged, institutional capital quietly rotated into risk. VMSI — VICA’s proprietary Volatility & Market Sentiment … Read more
By Matthew Krumholz | VICA Partners The Core Error Markets, even at their most sophisticated, remain anchored in what is familiar and backtestable. High-net-worth allocators and institutional funds alike prize clarity over possibility. Capital follows confidence intervals, not catalytic change. Markets allocate capital based on visible, historical, and quantifiable signals. Financial models optimize for near-term … Read more
VICA Partners | July 31, 2025, VICA Research — Volatility & Market Sentiment Index (VMSI©) “Institutional positioning continued to build momentum this week as macro volatility faded and sector breadth advanced. With hedging overlays thinning and capital rotating into cyclicals, the VMSI reflects a quiet but growing bias toward risk-on participation.” — Matthew Krumholz, CEO, … Read more
July 24, 2025 | VICA Research — Volatility & Market Sentiment Index | VICA Partners’ VMSI© (Volatility & Market Sentiment Index) isolates where conviction-weighted institutional capital is repositioning — helping investors cut through noise, quantify risk, and front-run structural shifts before they price into consensus. Institutional-grade signals — opened by design to those who think … Read more
Sources: National Association of REALTORS®, BLS, VMSI The U.S. housing market is showing clear late-cycle characteristics. Prices remain elevated, yet affordability and liquidity are deteriorating. Buyer sentiment is weak, transaction volume is sliding, and institutional participation is light. Our internal VMSI framework shows sustained stress in market internals. Based on these trends and broader macro … Read more