MARKETS TODAY Oct 13 (Vica Partners) – The S&P 500 up 0.86% as of 11.26 a.m. Eastern. The Dow Jones Industrial Average down 323 points, or 1.11%, to 29,504. The tech based Nasdaq up 0.56%.
Stocks uncertain of direction Thursday with all three major indexes swinging from red to green, as markets settle pricing for probable Fed November .75 percentage point rate hike increase. The 10-year Treasury note yield up at 3.96%. U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is slightly negative at $112.71. Oil prices positive today with Brent crude 1.84% and US West Texas Intermediate crude 1.94%.
CPI reports reflect prices have peaked and mostly in-line with August
The Consumer Price Index (CPI-U) rose 0.4 percent in September on a seasonally adjusted basis after rising 0.1 percent in August, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 8.2 percent before seasonal adjustment. The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.6 percent in September, as it did in August.
- Consumer price index (month-to-month) actual: .4%, forecast: 0.3%
- Core CPI actual: .6%, forecast: 0.5% last month: 0.6%
- CPI (year-on-year) actual: 8.2%, forecast: 8.1% previous: 8.3%
- Core CPI (year-on-year) actual: 6.6%, forecast: 6.6% previous: 6.3%
- Initial jobless claims actual: 228,000 forecast: 225,000 last month: 219,000
Important sector trends, and an important company watchlist
Over the past 30 days the Energy Sector is up 3.21%, and up 23.96% for the past 90 days. Your 90 Day watchlist should include: First Solar Inc. (FSLR) +88%, Conocophillips (COP) +45%, Hess Corporation (HES) +36%, Peabody Energy Corp (BTU)+34%, Murphy Oil Corporation (MUR) +59%, Devon Energy Corp (DVN) +40%, Schlumberger Limited (SLB) +34%.
The services sector is up 3.66% over the past 90 days.
IMPORTANT TO READ as low interest rates will return
The Federal Reserve will be forced to cut interest rates in 2023 if a deep recession occurs as the cure for inflation is not just raising rates. As we see a significant policy change coming by late Spring of 2023 with Powell reversing direction… just look at 12 month declining lower commodity pricing and new reports on rising retail inventories.
Yearly commodity prices will rise “as there are production shortages” which include: iron, copper and crude oil. Upside will continue!
Solid strategy for these type of market days ….
We suggest investing in companies that have solid balance sheets and offer dividends.
Best to continue to cost average buy value stocks and resist most all tech and growth stocks where companies have negative margins. Our Teams forecast a negative 5-7% valuation correction for speculative stocks. DON’T try to time market lows!
*** Watch for our emerging 90 day Sector and leading company watchlist
*** Look to Index ETF’s like SPY to outperform stocks and most managed funds
*** Energy is the Top Performing Sector in S&P 500 Year to Date and will regain strength shortly
