SECTOR TRENDS For the past 45 days, five of the largest U.S. banks have outperformed the S&P 500’s 13% gain. Goldman Sacs GS and Morgan Stanley MS, are up 19%, Wells Fargo WFC is up 18%, Citigroup and Bank of America about 17%. Vica overweight rating issued below Applies to Goldman Sacs and Citigroup
INDUSTRY REPORT SERIES Existing home sales in the US declined 5.9% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.81 million in July of 2022, the lowest since May of 2020 and below market expectations of 4.89 million. Sales declined for a sixth consecutive month, reflecting the impact of the mortgage rate peak of 6% in … Read more
GOVERNMENT REPORT SERIES The Producer Price Index for final demand fell 0.5 percent in July, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. This decline followed advances of 1.0 percent in June and 0.8 percent in May. On an unadjusted basis, final demand prices moved up 9.8 percent for the 12 months ended … Read more
FACT President Joe Biden signed the CHIPS and Science Act into law Tuesday, sending $52.7 billion to processor manufacturers over five years in an effort to help the US reclaim semiconductor industry leadership lost to Taiwanese and Korean companies and challenged by increasingly capable Chinese firms. Semiconductor makers are planning rapid expansions in the United … Read more
MARKETS Wall Street lowered its consensus bottom-up EPS estimate by 2.5% from June 30 to July 28. During the past five years – or 20 quarters – the average decline in the bottom-up EPS estimate during the first month of a quarter has been 1.3%. As economic data continues to shows signs of slowing … Read more
GORVEMENT REPORT SERIES In the week ending July 9, seasonally adjusted initial claims was 244,000, an increase of 9,000 from the previous week’s level of 235,000. The four week average has gone 14 consecutive weeks without a decline, however… Prior to last November initial claims remain low A tight labor market restricts consumer spending. … Read more
GOVERNMENT REPORT SERIES Payroll employment rises by 372,000 in June; unemployment rate remains at 3.6%. Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 372,000 in June, and the unemployment rate remained at 3.6 percent. Notable job gains occurred in professional and business services, leisure and hospitality, and health care. Market context The economy was expected to have … Read more
GOVERNMENT REPORT SERIES Investors on Friday were signaling they believe higher rates have already begun to bring inflation down. The five year break even rate is a measure of where the market believes inflation will be in five years’ time fell to its lowest level since January 2022 (see chart below) The Atlanta Fed’s and … Read more
GOVERNMENT REPORT SERIES UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE WEEKLY CLAIMS Initial jobless claims were down last week, and were marginally lower than Govt forecast; as investors continue to assess the labor market for potential signs of a slowdown. SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA In the week ending June 25, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 231,000, a … Read more
GOVERNMENT REPORT SERIES Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 1.6 percent in the first quarter of 2022, according to the “third” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter of 2021, real GDP increased 6.9 percent. The “third” estimate of GDP released today is based on more … Read more