INDUSTRY REPORT SERIES AAII Sentiment Survey July 21, 2022 Pessimism among individual investors about the short-term direction of the stock market continued to decline, falling to a seven-week low in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. At the same time, optimism extended its rebound into a second week by rising to a seven-week high. Survey Says … Read more
FACTS Research shows that headlines using negative words such as never and worst perform much better than those using positive words such as always and best. In fact they perform significantly better, with negative headlines performing 30% better than neutral ones and 60% better than positive headlines. The clearer the headline the better the conversion … Read more
101 SERIES The yield curve is a plot of the interest rate yields on debt instruments of different maturities, holding risk, liquidity and tax treatment constant. Research over the last decade has uncovered predictive relationships between the slope of the yield curve and subsequent real activity and inflation. The U.S. Treasury yield curve compares the … Read more
GORVEMENT REPORT SERIES In the week ending July 9, seasonally adjusted initial claims was 244,000, an increase of 9,000 from the previous week’s level of 235,000. The four week average has gone 14 consecutive weeks without a decline, however… Prior to last November initial claims remain low A tight labor market restricts consumer spending. … Read more
GOVERNMENT REPORT SERIES Payroll employment rises by 372,000 in June; unemployment rate remains at 3.6%. Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 372,000 in June, and the unemployment rate remained at 3.6 percent. Notable job gains occurred in professional and business services, leisure and hospitality, and health care. Market context The economy was expected to have … Read more
INDUSTRY REPORT SERIES The U.S. economy will continue to expand for the rest of 2022, say the nation’s purchasing and supply executives in the Spring 2022 Semiannual Economic Forecast. Expectations for the remainder for 2022 are similar to those expressed in December 2021, despite continued inflation and geopolitical unrest. The Services PMI® registered 55.3. Summary … Read more
GOVERNMENT REPORT SERIES Investors on Friday were signaling they believe higher rates have already begun to bring inflation down. The five year break even rate is a measure of where the market believes inflation will be in five years’ time fell to its lowest level since January 2022 (see chart below) The Atlanta Fed’s and … Read more
FACTS In summary, the “Media Effect” is the result of people acting on advice of paid newsletters, network programs and other. Our 5 and 10 year studies indicate they don’t beat the Market unless you sell them in 24 hours following recommendation. Beware the bearer of stock pick advice An investor who bought a … Read more
GOVERNMENT REPORT SERIES UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE WEEKLY CLAIMS Initial jobless claims were down last week, and were marginally lower than Govt forecast; as investors continue to assess the labor market for potential signs of a slowdown. SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA In the week ending June 25, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 231,000, a … Read more
GOVERNMENT REPORT SERIES Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 1.6 percent in the first quarter of 2022, according to the “third” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter of 2021, real GDP increased 6.9 percent. The “third” estimate of GDP released today is based on more … Read more