Markets Bet on Fed Cut — But Institutions Are Already Moving

August 4, 2025 | VICA Macro Strategy Note By Matthew Krumholz | Source: VICA Partners Executive Summary A sharp drop in July job creation triggered an aggressive repricing of Federal Reserve expectations. While short-end yields tumbled and Fed cut odds surged, institutional capital quietly rotated into risk. VMSI — VICA’s proprietary Volatility & Market Sentiment … Read more

Quiet Confidence: VMSI Signals Institutions Are Moving First

VICA Partners | July 31, 2025, VICA Research — Volatility & Market Sentiment Index (VMSI©) “Institutional positioning continued to build momentum this week as macro volatility faded and sector breadth advanced. With hedging overlays thinning and capital rotating into cyclicals, the VMSI reflects a quiet but growing bias toward risk-on participation.” — Matthew Krumholz, CEO, … Read more

Cyclicals Lead, Hedging Slows, VMSI Signals Institutional Confidence Growing

July 24, 2025 | VICA Research — Volatility & Market Sentiment Index |  VICA Partners’ VMSI© (Volatility & Market Sentiment Index) isolates where conviction-weighted institutional capital is repositioning — helping investors cut through noise, quantify risk, and front-run structural shifts before they price into consensus.    Institutional-grade signals — opened by design to those who think … Read more

Housing Market: Late-Cycle Strain, Repricing Likely by 2026

Sources: National Association of REALTORS®, BLS, VMSI The U.S. housing market is showing clear late-cycle characteristics. Prices remain elevated, yet affordability and liquidity are deteriorating. Buyer sentiment is weak, transaction volume is sliding, and institutional participation is light. Our internal VMSI framework shows sustained stress in market internals. Based on these trends and broader macro … Read more

Conviction Builds as Volatility Slides and Rotation Widens

VMSI Edges to 57.4 as Breadth Firms, Tactical Hedging Further Fades, July 17, 2025 | VICA Research — Volatility & Market Sentiment Index VICA Partners’ VMSI© (Volatility & Market Sentiment Index) isolates where conviction-weighted institutional capital is repositioning — helping investors cut through noise, quantify risk, and front-run structural shifts before they price into consensus. … Read more

Conviction Builds as Volatility Slides and Cyclical Rotation Gains Strength

VMSI Edges to 57.0 as Breadth Expands, Hedging Costs Slide Further July 10, 2025 | VICA Research — Volatility & Market Sentiment Index VICA Partners’ VMSI© (Volatility & Market Sentiment Index) isolates where conviction-weighted institutional capital is repositioning — helping investors cut through noise, quantify risk, and front-run structural shifts before they price into consensus. … Read more

Conviction Cohesion Builds as Volatility Plateaus: Institutions Stay the Course

VMSI edges to 56.1 as breadth expands, hedging eases further July 3, 2025 | VICA Research — Volatility & Market Sentiment Index VICA Partners’ VMSI© (Volatility & Market Sentiment Index) isolates where conviction-weighted institutional capital is repositioning — helping investors cut through noise, quantify risk, and front-run structural shifts before they price into consensus. Institutional-grade … Read more

Conviction Balances Amid Elevated Volatility: Institutions Reassess, Not Retreat

VMSI Edges to 55.1 as Rotation Stabilizes, Capital Maintains Risk-Aware Engagement June 26, 2025 | VICA Research — Volatility & Market Sentiment Index VICA Partners’ VMSI© (Volatility & Market Sentiment Index) isolates where conviction-weighted institutional capital is repositioning—helping investors cut through noise, quantify risk, and front-run structural shifts before they price into consensus. Institutional-grade signals … Read more

Conviction Holds as Risk Tolerance Meets New Volatility

VMSI Slips to 54.9 as Institutional Appetite Maintains Course Despite Uptick in Hedging Costs June 19, 2025 | VICA Research — Volatility & Momentum Signal Index | VICA Partners’ VMSI© (Volatility & Market Sentiment Index) isolates where conviction-weighted institutional capital is repositioning — helping investors cut through noise, quantify risk, and front-run structural shifts before … Read more

Own the Pipe, Not the Price

Energy Logistics as a VMSI-Positive, Asymmetric Trade In a market addicted to volatility, the most defensible position in energy isn’t predicting prices—it’s controlling flow. Logistics infrastructure is not just a high-yield utility hold; it’s a mispriced, option-rich asset class that screens strong across all four VMSI vectors. Value: Yield Without the Duration Risk Trades at … Read more