Economic Stability: Nasdaq and NYSE Fang+ Lead, Semiconductors and Auto Industries Thrive, Defensive Utilities Decline

“Empowering Your Financial Success”

Daily Market Insights: September 28th, 2023

Global Markets Summary:

Asian Markets:

  • China’s Shanghai Composite: +0.13%
  • Hong Kong’s Hang Seng: -1.41%
  • Japan’s Nikkei 225: -1.54%

US Futures:

  • S&P Futures: opened @ 4269.65 (+0.11%)

European Markets:

  • Germany’s DAX: +0.70%
  • France’s CAC 40: +0.63%
  • London’s FTSE 100: +0.13%

US Market Snapshot:

Key Stock Market Indices:

  • DJIA ^DJI: 33,666.34 (116.07, 0.35%)
  • S&P 500 ^GSPC: 4,299.70 (25.19, 0.59%)
  • Nasdaq Composite ^NASX: 13,201.28 (108.43, 0.83%)
  • Nasdaq 100 ^NDX: 14,702.77 (122.61, 0.84%)
  • NYSE Fang+ ^NYFANG: 7,347.48 (85.38, 1.18%)
  • Russell 2000 ^RUT: 1,794.31 (15.41, 0.87%)

Market Insights: Performance, Sectors, and Trends:

  • Economic Data: Initial Claims: 204k (beat 215k consensus, up from 201k last week). Continuing Claims: 1.67 million (below 1.675 million consensus). Q2 GDP (final): 2.1% (slightly under 2.2% consensus, in line with prior figure). Q2 PCE (final): 3.7%. Data suggests a stable economy with jobless claims and GDP performance surprises.
  • Market Indices: The Nasdaq Composite (^NASX) led the majors with gains, followed by the S&P 500 (^GSPC) and DJIA (^DJI). The NYSE Fang+ (^NYFANG) saw the greatest increase on the day, followed by Russell 2000 (^RUT) and Nasdaq 100 (^NDX).
  • Sector Performance: 10 of 11 sectors rose, led by Communication Services (+1.16%), while Utilities (-2.19%) lagged. Top Industries: Automobile Components (+3.12%), Automobiles (+2.38%).
  • Factors: IPOs and Small Caps outperformed.
  • Top ETF: Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X Shares ^SOXL gained +5.43%
  • Worst ETF: ProShares Ultra VIX Short Term Futures ^UVXY declined by -7.09%..
  • Treasury Markets: 30-Year Bond yields were 4.709% (-0.011%), 10-Year Note at 4.576% (-0.040%), and 5-Year Note at 4.632% (-0.064%). Short-term bills fluctuated, and yield spreads tightened.
  • Currency and Volatility: The U.S. Dollar Index declined, CBOE Volatility decreased, and the Fear & Greed Index showed a slight improvement but still signaled fear.
  • Commodity Markets: Gold Futures declined, Bitcoin rebounded, Crude Oil Futures WTI retreated, and the Bloomberg Commodity Index rose. Gold Futures fell, Bitcoin bounced nicely,

Sectors:

  • 10 of 11 sectors rose, with Communication Services (+1.16%) outperforming while Utilities (-2.19%) lagged. Industry Leads: Automobile Components (+3.12%), Automobiles (+2.38%), Hotel & Resort REITs (+2.37%).

Treasury Yields and Currency:

  • In Treasury markets, long-term bonds, like the 30-Year Bond, had higher yields at 4.709%, down 0.011%. The 10-Year Note was at 4.576%, down 0.040%, and the 5-Year Note stood at 4.632%, down 0.064%. Short-term bills saw slight changes, and yield spreads narrowed.
  • The U.S. Dollar Index ^DXY: 106.16 (-0.51, -0.48%)

Market Volatility and Sentiment:

  • CBOE Volatility ^VIX: 17.35 (-0.87, -4.77%)
  • Fear & Greed Index (TY/LY): 29/17 (Fear/Extreme Fear).

source: CNN Fear and Greed Index

Commodities:

  • Gold Futures: 1867.22 (-10.42, -0.55%)
  • Bitcoin USD: 27175.20 (+817.60, 3.10%)
  • Crude Oil Futures WTI: 91.61 (-2.07, -2.21%)
  • Bloomberg Commodity Index: 105.89 (0.12, 0.12%)

Factors:

  • IPOs led (+2.2%) followed by Small Cap Growth (+1.2%)

ETF Performance:

Top 3 Best Performers:

  1. Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X Shares ^SOXL +5.43%
  2. Pro Shares UltaPro QQQ ^TQQQ +2.42%
  3. Ishares Msci Brazil ETF ^EWZ +1.33%

Top 3 Worst Performers:

  1. ProShares Ultra VIX Short Term Futures ETF ^UVXY -7.09%
  2. ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ ^SQQQ -2.24%
  3. Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund ^XLU -2.16%

US Economic Data

  • Initial Claims: 204k (vs. consensus 215k, prior 201k)
  • Continuing Claims: 1.67 million (vs. consensus 1.675 million, prior 1.662 million)
  • Q2 GDP (final): 2.1% (vs. consensus 2.2%, prior 2.1%)
  • Q2 PCE (final): 3.7% (prior 3.7%)

Earnings:

  • Q1 ’23: 79% of companies beat analyst estimates.
  • Q2 Forecast/Actual: Predicted <7.2%> FY 2023 S&P 500 EPS decline; FY 2023 EPS flat YoY. By 7-28, 51% reported Q2 2023 results; 80% beat EPS estimates, above 5-year (77%) and 10-year (73%) averages. Earnings exceeded estimates by 5.9%, slightly below the 5-year (8.4%) and 10-year (6.4%) averages.
  • Q3 Forecast: S&P 500 to see -0.2% YoY earnings decline, marking 4th consecutive drop. S&P 500’s 12-month P/E ratio is 18.0, below 5-year (18.7%) average but above 10-year (17.5%) average. 74 S&P 500 firms gave negative EPS guidance, 42 exceeded expectations with positive guidance.

Notable Earnings Today:

  • Beat: n/a
  • Miss: Accenture (ACN), Nike (NKE), Jabil Circuit (JBL), CarMax (KMX), Vail Resorts (MTN) BlackBerry (BB)

Resources:

News

Investment and Growth News

  • UPS to Acquire MNX in Bid to Bolster Healthcare Business – WSJ
  • X CEO Linda Yaccarino Says Platform Should Turn Profit in 2024 –  WSJ
  • This Year’s Hottest Tech IPO May Be a Transportation Firm – Bloomberg
  • Character.AI in Early Talks for Funding at More Than $5 Billion Valuation – Bloomberg

Infrastructure and Energy

  • Biden to Offer Smallest-Ever Offshore Oil Rights Sale Plan – Bloomberg
  • China’s Grip on Critical Minerals Draws Warnings at IEA Gathering – Bloomberg

Real Estate Market Updates

  • About Four in Ten US Homeowners Are Mortgage Free. Are You One of Them? – Bloomberg

Central Banking and Monetary Policy

  • Powell Says Public’s Understanding Key to Fed Impact on Economy – Bloomberg
  • Why America Has a Long-Term Labor Crisis, in Six Charts – WSJ

International Market Analysis (China)

  • China’s ‘golden week’ spending and travel surge seen as economic boon – SCMP

Journal

News

VMSI Edges Up to 25.2, But Market Remains Deep in Risk-Off Territory

What is VMSI? The VICA Market Sentiment Index tracks institutional capital flows, risk posture, and macro volatility weekly. Built for ...
News

Institutional Allocators Aren’t Watching Volatility—They’re Designing Into It

VICA Partners Intelligence | April 2025 A regime transition in capital allocation is underway—and the smartest money is leading the ...
News

VMSI Drops to 22.4 as Risk-Off Accelerates and Volatility Deepens

VMSI Gauge Chart — Displaying Current Sentiment and Risk Level The VMSI gauge indicates a current sentiment score of 22.4, ...