Fed 81% Chance it Raises Interest Rates by 0.75 Percentage Points in September

MARKETS

U.S. indexes gain despite fears of oil prices as the market settles on Fed rate direction. The S&P 500 was up 1.1% in afternoon trading. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.90%, and the Nasdaq Composite has gained 1.2%.

 The Federal reserve first…

Backed by a strong U.S. economy still creating jobs at a consensus- pace, the Federal Reserve continues its fight against inflation by continuing to hike interest rates. The dollar is at one of its strongest key currency positions in a decade.

Boston Federal Reserve Bank’s new President Susan Collins, in her first media interview since starting the job this summer, said that bringing inflation back down to 2% is the Fed’s “Job One,” and while it has raised rates significantly, “there’s more to do.”

In commodities…

Oil prices Brent and WTI both down about 4% today on reports that Russian President Vladimir Putin threatened to cut off energy supply if price limits are imposed by the West on Russia’s oil and gas exports.

 

Journal

VMSI INDEX

Inverse ETFs Are Analog Hedges in a Digital Market

VICA Partners | Institutional Market Structure Commentary, January 2026 Inverse ETFs Are Analog Hedges in a Digital MarketThey trade direction. ...
VMSI INDEX

The Next Market Shock Won’t Announce Itself in VIX

Why volatility is a tradable price — not a structural risk signal VICA Partners | Institutional Market Structure Commentary Abstract ...
VMSI INDEX

CAPM Explains Risk. It Doesn’t Explain Why Prices Hold.

Why modern markets require a structural model — and what VMSI adds that traditional analysis cannot VICA Partners | Institutional ...