GOVERNMENT REPORT SERIES
Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 0.9 percent in the second quarter of 2022, according to the “advance” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic. Real GDP decreased less in the second quarter than in the first quarter, decreasing 0.9 percent after decreasing 1.6 percent.
According to the GDP report finds
The smaller decrease reflected an upturn in exports and a smaller decrease in federal government spending that were partly offset by larger declines in private inventory investment and state and local government spending, a slowdown in PCE, and downturns in nonresidential fixed investment and residential fixed investment. Imports decelerated.
The National Bureau of Economic Research is unlikely to declare a recession
By definition a recession starts and begins when you have two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth. However the NBER is unlikely to declare a recession as most other economic indicators, including employment, industrial production, and consumer spending have all continued to trend up in the first half despite the decline in GDP.
Rate hikes help to fight inflation as they slow the rate of economic growth
Futures markets imply the federal-funds rate will ultimately rise to 3.25% by the end of 2022, which is consistent with the Fed’s guidance.
