May 15, 2025 | VICA Research
Weekly Snapshot
VMSI Score: 44.2 (Defensive Zone)
S&P 500: +0.41% | Nasdaq: –0.18% | Dow: +0.65% | VIX: 17.83
Momentum: 39.0 | Liquidity: 30.2 | Volatility: 59.2 | Safe Haven Demand: 78.4
Markets advanced across major indices this week, but the VICA Market Sentiment Index (VMSI) held firm within the Defensive Zone, rising modestly to 44.2. Institutions are less fearful, but conviction remains elusive. Despite lower volatility and broader participation, capital flows and macro positioning still favor caution.
What is VMSI?
The VICA Market Sentiment Index (VMSI)© tracks institutional capital flows, risk posture, and macro volatility weekly. Built for tactical allocation — not behavioral shifts.
VMSI Gauge — Current Sentiment & Risk Level
VMSI Gauge – May 15, 2025
VMSI Score – May 15, 2025: 44.2
The gauge reflects a third straight week of improvement, but sentiment remains within defensive ranges. Institutions are beginning to re-engage, but lack full exposure.
Insight: Institutional sentiment is rising, but not yet confident.
VMSI Timeline — Sentiment Shifts Over Time
VMSI Score Timeline – Last 12 Weeks
The sentiment line has moved up for the third consecutive week after bottoming in late April. While the trajectory is constructive, the level remains well below optimism thresholds.
Insight: Trend is improving, but conviction remains fragile.
Market Momentum — Institutional Accumulation
Market Momentum – May 15, 2025
Momentum rebounded modestly, closing at 39.0. Technicals show improving breadth and participation, but still shy of neutral territory.
Insight: Momentum is rising, but lacks sustained follow-through.
Liquidity Flows — Capital Movement Patterns
Liquidity Flow Index – May 15, 2025
Liquidity scores lifted to 30.2, just above the critical zone. Redemptions have slowed, but inflows remain narrowly concentrated.
Insight: Stabilizing, but expansion capital remains on hold.
Volatility & Risk Hedging — Uncertainty Barometer
Volatility & Hedging Score – May 15, 2025
Volatility cooled to 59.2 from recent highs. The VIX dropped over 4%, indicating softening hedging pressure, though downside demand remains historically elevated.
Insight: Vol hedges are retreating, but not fully unwound.
Safe Haven Demand — Flight to Quality
Safe Haven Demand Score – May 15, 2025
Safe haven demand remained strong, holding at 78.4. Treasuries and quality ETF flows continued to attract inflows despite risk-on index moves.
Insight: Institutions remain heavily tilted toward safety.
Defensive Sector Rotation — Equity Preference
Defensive Sector Performance – May 15, 2025
Utilities, Staples, and Healthcare posted modest gains while Tech and Industrials fell sharply. Rotation remains tilted toward defensive equity.
Insight: Risk appetite is selective and defensive-focused.
Institutional Positioning Snapshot
Institutional Positioning Grid – May 15, 2025
Positioning Overview – May 15, 2025
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Risk Appetite: Muted
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Volatility Trend: Elevated
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Sector Leadership: Defensive
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Macro Clarity: Unclear
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Capital Flows: Cautious
Insight: Posture remains guarded and tactical, not directional.
Pre-Recovery Alert — Historical Recovery Zones
Historical VMSI Recovery Zones – 2011, 2020, 2025
The current VMSI score aligns with historical market bottoms (2011, 2020). These readings often precede recoveries once macro conviction stabilizes.
Insight: Positioning suggests possible pivot, but catalysts are still forming.
About the VICA Market Sentiment Index (VMSI)©
The VMSI is VICA Research’s proprietary sentiment gauge designed to track shifts in institutional risk behavior, capital flow posture, and macro-driven volatility signals.
Each weekly score reflects a multi-factor model that blends market structure, flow dynamics, defensive rotation, and volatility hedging — calibrated against technical and behavioral thresholds.
Index Scale:
🟥 0–25: Critical Risk Zone
🟧 26–49: Defensive
🟨 50–74: Cautionary Optimism
🟩 75–100: Expansion / High Confidence
The VMSI updates weekly following Thursday’s market close.
Disclaimer
This report and the proprietary VICA Market Sentiment Index (VMSI)© are confidential works of authorship protected by intellectual property laws. Unauthorized reproduction, copying, redistribution, or use without express permission from VICA Research is strictly prohibited and monitored.
A portion of future VMSI-related proceeds will support global literacy, vocational education, and the advancement of scholars in critical fields like engineering — with a commitment to measurable impact and long-term social return.
