Relief rally Tuesday on Chair Powell’s speech as the central bank distances from political agendas

MARKETS TODAY Jan 10 (Vica Partners)

DOW (^DJI) 33,704 (+187), S&P 500 (^GSPC) 3,919 (+27), Nasdaq (^IXIC) 10,743 (+107), Russell 2000 (^RUT) 1,823 (+27), NYSE FANG+ (^NYFANG) 4,590 (+76), Brent Crude $79.60/barrel (-$0.05), Gold $1,877/oz (+$6), Bitcoin 17.5k (+$277)

Session Overview

The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 0.56% today, closing at 33,704.10. The best performing sectors were the Consumer Discretionary and Communication Services sectors, up 0.99% and 0.87% respectively. Consumer Staples and Real Estate were the largest decliners, down 0.15% and 0.09% respectively.

In economic news, J Powell spoke in Sweden and stressed that Fed needs independence to fight inflation, should avoid social policy and other political agendas. NFIB small-business index,  declined 2.1 points in December, as small business owners are not optimistic about 2023 as sales and business conditions are expected to deteriorate and inflation remains the single most important business problem. And finally in U.S. wholesale inventories increased less than initially thought in October with the pressure of slowing demand.

Technicals/ Sector Performance/ Yields+

The S&P 500 up +1.5% to start the year and cleared it 50 day moving average of 3,905. Closing at 3919. It important to note that each subsequent rally has failed to hold the average.

9 of 11 of S&P 500 Sectors were higher today;

The best performing sectors were the Consumer Discretionary and Communication Services sectors, up 0.99% and 0.87% respectively. Consumer Staples and Real Estate were the largest decliners, down 0.15% and 0.09% respectively.

Yields all rising: US – 2yr to 4.247% +, 5yr to 3.7247% +, 10yr to 3.615% +, 30yr to 3.746% +

Greed Index Rating 50/ Neutral

U.S Economic News

  • NFIB small-business index; Small Business Optimism Index declined 2.1 points in December to 89.8, marking the 12th consecutive month below the 49-year average of 98. In summary small business owners are not optimistic about 2023 as sales and business conditions are expected to deteriorate. Inflation remains the single most important business problem.
  • Fed Chair Jerome Powell speaks in Sweden; Chair Jerome Powell said on Tuesday,“ that the Federal Reserve’s independence from political influence is central to its ability to battle inflation, but requires it stay out of issues like climate change that are beyond its congressionally established mandate”.
  • Wholesale inventories (revision); wholesale inventories in the US rose by 1.0 percent month-over-month to $933.6 billion in November of 2022, picking up from a revised 0.6 percent rise in the prior month. Wholesale inventories increased less than initially thought in October with slowing demand. Tomorrow no economic report activity

Other Asset Classes:

  • CBOE Volatility Index (^VIX): -1.39 to 20.58
  • USD index: +$0.29 to $103.29
  • Oil prices – Brent: +0.06% to $79.60, WTI: +0.09% to $74.70, Nat Gas: -8.44% to $3.58
  • Gold: +0.34% to $1,877.05, Silver: -0.23% to $23.60, Copper: +1.35% to $4.08
  • Bitcoin: +1.61% to $17.5k

In world news   

  • Russia is now fighting NATO in Ukraine, top Putin ally says Reuters
  • Pacifist Japan unveils biggest military build-up since World War Two Reuters
  • China blocks visas for S Korea and Japan over Covid restrictions BBC 

Vica Momentum Stock Report

Merck & Co. (MRK) $MRK. (Momentum Grade B) (Value A-) (Growth A+) 50 Day Average +11.10%, 100 Day Average +21.72%, 200 Day Average +37.81%

Merck is a global healthcare company it engages in the provision of health solutions through its prescription medicines, vaccines, biologic therapies, animal health, and consumer care products. The company and its subsidiaries operate in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Asia Pacific, and Latin America. Merck is known as MSD outside the US and Canada and is headquartered in Kenilworth, New Jersey, the US.

 

Market Outlook

Market Outlook and updates posted at vicapartners.com

 

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