MARKETS TODAY Jan 18 (Vica Partners)
DOW (^DJI) 33,297 (-614), S&P 500 (^GSPC) 3,929 (-62), Nasdaq (^IXIC) 10,957 (-138), Russell 2000 (^RUT) 1,855 (-30), NYSE FANG+ (^NYFANG) 4,756 (-69), Brent Crude $84.73/barrel (-$1.19), Gold $1,904/oz (-$5), Bitcoin $21.8k (-$325)
Session Overview
- Key Indexes and treasury yields reversed lower as equities were mixed in session as the market addressed incoming economic reports
- All 11 S&P 500 Sectors lower: Materials outperform, Staples/Utilities underperform. Utilities and Consumer Staples, which have been underperforming YTD
- Retail sales and industrial production fell more than expected, PPI was in-line with consensus.
- Economic data continues to point to slowing economic growth and reducing inflation.
- Fed Officials acknowledged progress on inflation but that more needs to be done and reiterated rates need to move above the 5% – 5.25%.
- Goldman, Microsoft and Amazon layoffs continue to spook the market this week
- On a upbeat note; mortgage applications surged 27.9% in the week ended 13 January as interest rates dropped to their lowest level since September.
Technicals/ Sector Performance/ Yields+
The S&P fell below its 200d moving average of 3,975 today closing 3,928.86, down 1.56%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended sharply lower today, falling by 1.81% to close at 33,296.96 also below its 200d moving average 32,386.
All 11 S&P 500 Sectors lower: Materials outperform, Staples/Utilities underperform
The best performing sectors were Materials and Industrials, down 0.34% and 0.61% respectively. The Consumer Staples and Utilities sectors were the biggest decliners, down 2.09% and 1.88% respectively.
Yields all down: US – 2yr to 4.08% -, 5yr to 3.437% -, 10yr to 3.372% -, 30yr to 3.539%-
Greed Index Rating 57/ Greed
U.S Economic News
- Retail sales; American consumers cut back on retail spending this holiday season. Retail sales, a measure of purchases at stores, restaurants and online, declined a seasonally adjusted 1.1% in December from the prior month. November retail sales were revised lower, to a 1% decline.
- Retail sales ex motor vehicles; Retail sales excluding autos in the United States fell by 1.1% month-over-month in December of 2022, the most since February of 2021 and worse than market estimates of a 0.4%
- Producer price index, final demand; The Producer Price Index for final demand declined 0.5 percent in December. Prices for final demand goods decreased 1.6 percent, and the index for final demand services rose 0.1 percent. The index for final demand increased 6.2 percent in 2022, the slowest pace since March 2021.
- The Producer Price Index (PPI) program measures the average change over time in the selling prices received by domestic producers for their output.
- Industrial production; Industrial production decreased 0.7 percent in December and 1.7 percent at an annual rate in the fourth quarter. The bigger than expected decline in industrial production partly reflected a continued slump which fell 1.3 percent. Economists had expected industrial production to be down by 0.1 percent compared to the 0.2 percent drop reported last month.
- NAHB home builders’ index; Homebuilder sentiment rises in January for the first time in a year, thanks to lower mortgage rates Sentiment rose four points to 35 on the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index. Sentiment rose four points to 35 on the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index. Anything below 50 is still considered negative sentiment. The metric stood at 83 in January 2022.
- Business inventories (revision); Manufacturers’ and trade inventories in the US increased by 0.3% from a month earlier in October of 2022, following a downwardly revised 0.2% rise in the prior month and slightly below expectations of a 0.4% advance.
- Fed comments; Fed Officials acknowledged progress on inflation but that more needs to be done and reiterated rates need to move above the 5% – 5.25%.
Other Asset Classes:
- CBOE Volatility Index (^VIX): +0.98 to 20.34
- USD index: +$0.02 to $102.41
- Oil prices – Brent: -1.39% to $84.73, WTI: -1.16% to $79.25, Nat Gas: -8.34% to $3.287
- Gold: -0.24% to $1,904.06, Silver: -2.06% to $23.45, Copper: -0.04% to $4.22
- Bitcoin: -1.54% to $20.8k
News
- U.S. to announce international cryptocurrency action –statement reuters
- Amazon to lay off staff in U.S., Canada and Costa Rica by end of day reuters
- U.S. energy chief warns Republicans that oil bill would raise pump prices reuters
Vica Momentum Stock Report
Exxon Mobil Corp (XOM) $XOM. (Momentum Grade C+) (Value A-) (Growth A+) 20 Day Average +5.64%, 50 Day Average -0.44%, 100 Day Average +12.20%, 200 Day Average +33.93%
Exxon Mobil Corporation explores for and produces crude oil and natural gas in the United States and internationally. It operates through Upstream, Downstream, and Chemical segments. The company is also involved in the manufacture, trade, transport, and sale of crude oil, natural gas, petroleum products, petrochemicals, and other specialty products; manufactures and sells petrochemicals, including olefins, polyolefins, aromatics, and various other petrochemicals; and captures and stores carbon, hydrogen, and biofuels. The company was founded in 1870 and is headquartered in Irving, Texas.
Market Outlook
Market Outlook and updates posted at vicapartners.com
