MARKETS TODAY Jan 19 (Vica Partners)
DOW (^DJI) 33,045 (-252), S&P 500 (^GSPC) 3,899 (-30), Nasdaq (^IXIC) 10,852 (-105), Russell 2000 (^RUT) 1,837 (-18), NYSE FANG+ (^NYFANG) 4,689 (-68), Brent Crude $86.29/barrel (+$1.31), Gold $1,932/oz (+$25), Bitcoin $21.0k (+$295)
Session Overview
- Key Indexes end lower
- Yields all rise
- Economic data was mixed; housing starts coming in better than expected with permits below / initial claims declined modestly and signaled a continuing tight labor market
- 8 of 11 S&P 500 Sectors lower: Energy/ Communication Services outperform, Industrials /Information Technolgy underperform. Utilities and Consumer Staples, continue to underperform YTD
- Healthcare sector finally saw an uptick today
- Energy and commodities moving higher with continued optimism on China re-opening
- Procter & Gamble reported pre-market and the numbers were in line with estimates
Technicals/ Sector Performance/ Yields+
The S&P held above its 100d moving average of 3,865 closing at 3,899, down 0.76%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended lower today, declining by 0.76% to close at 33,044.56 closing above its 200d moving average 32,376. The Nasdaq fell below its 50d moving average of 10,896 closing at 10,852, down 0.96%.
8 of 11 S&P 500 Sectors lower: Energy/ Communication Services outperform, Industrials /Information Technolgy underperform
The best performing sectors were Energy and Communication Services, up 1.06% and 0.56% respectively. The Industrials and Information Technology sectors were the biggest decliners, down 1.58% and 1.02% respectively.
Yields all advancing: US – 2yr to 4.129%+, 5yr to 3.486%+, 10yr to 3.399%+, 30yr to 3.569%+
Greed Index Rating 53/ Neutral
U.S Economic News
- Initial jobless claims; The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell last week, a month of solid job growth and continued labor market tightness. Weekly jobless claims decline by 15,000 to 190,000, missing estimates of 215,000
- Continuing jobless claims; continuing claims increase 17,000 to 1.647 million in-line with estimates of 1.65 million. Continued claims, also referred to as insured unemployment, is the number of people who have already filed an initial claim and who have experienced a week of unemployment and then filed a continued claim to claim benefits for that week of unemployment.
- Building permits (SAAR); Building permits in the United States fell 1.6 percent from a month earlier to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.33 million in December 2022, the lowest level since May 2020 and below market expectations of 1.37 million. The purpose of the Building Permits Survey (BPS) is to provide national, state, and local statistics on new privately-owned residential construction.
- Housing starts (SAAR); homebuilding activity continues to slow as housing starts dropped further in December to 1.38 million, down 1.4% from revised November 2022 estimate and down 21.8% from December 2021. Historically housing starts have been an early warning sign of an oncoming recession.
- Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index; Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index improves to -8.9 in January vs. -11 expected.
- Fed comments; Brainard’s speech focuses on recent weak economic data and highlights that inflation on a 3mo annualized basis is cooling much faster than suggested by the annual numbers and sees higher wages and the tight labor market softening.
Other Asset Classes:
- CBOE Volatility Index (^VIX): +0.18 to 20.52
- USD index: -$0.30 to $102.07
- Oil prices – Brent: +1.54% to $86.29, WTI: +1.38% to $80.58, Nat Gas: -3.32% to $3.201
- Gold: +1.32% to $1,932.31, Silver: +1.48% to $23.85, Copper: +0.32% to $4.25
- Bitcoin: +1.43% to $21.0k
Business News
- U.S. hits debt ceiling as partisan standoff sparks economic worries reuters
- Netflix co-founder Hastings steps down as CEO as company adds subscribers reuters
- SLB wins Russia business as oilfield rivals exit after Ukraine invasion reuters
Vica Momentum Stock Report
Sasol (SSL) $SSL. (Momentum Grade B+) (Value A) (Growth B+) 5 Day Average +4.04%, 20 Day Average +12.83%, 50 Day Average +1.11%, Year-to-Date +9.74%
Sasol Limited is engaged in the mining and processing of coal. It also produces chemicals, explores for and refines crude oil, and manufactures fertilizers and explosives. In addition, it converts coal to petrochemicals products, such as diesel fuels and gasoline.
Market Outlook
Market Outlook and updates posted at vicapartners.com
