Wall Street Stalls on Fed’s Expected Wednesday 25bps Hike

MARKETS TODAY May 1st, 2023 (Vica Partners)

Last Friday, US Markets finished higher with the 3 major Indices all returning a Weekly gain. The Nasdaq was up 1.3% over the past 5 days as Big Tech reported solid Q1 earnings while the S&P 500 was up 3% in the final two days with Exxon and Chevron reporting earning beats. The Volatility Index dropped to >16, an 18 month low. In economic news, Core PCE was in-line with analyst’s estimates.

Overnight, Asian and European markets mostly closed, Japan’s Nikkei 225 +0.92%. S&P 500 US futures were trading unchanged

Today, US Markets finished lower S&P 500 -0.14%, DOW -0.14%, Nasdaq -0.11%. 6 of 11 of the S&P 500 sectors finished lower on the day, Energy -1.04% and Real Estate -0.86% led decliners On the upside, the Healthcare sector outperformed, Semiconductor ETF (SOXX)+0.91% / ON Semiconductor (ON) earnings beat, Yields rose across the curve. In economic news, S&P 500 Global Manufacturing PMI increased (MOM) and the ISM Manufacturing PMI improved beating analyst consensus.

Takeaways

  • Global markets closed for holiday
  • Indices pause as regulators seize First Republic Bank
  • Regional Banking down, SPDR S&P Banking ETF (KRE) -2.81%
  • Defensives/ Healthcare outperforms
  • ON Semiconductor (ON) earnings beat
  • ISM Manufacturing PMI beat analyst consensus
  • Fed’s expected to take 25bps hike on Wednesday

Pro Tip: A double top is a bearish technical reversal pattern that forms after an asset reaches a high price two consecutive times with a moderate decline between the two highs.  Often, an asset’s price will experience a peak, before retracing back to a level of support. It usually climbs before reversing back and regressing to mean average (learn more here).

Sectors/ Commodities/ Treasuries

Key Indexes (50d, 100d, 200d)

S&P Sectors

  • 6 of 11 of the S&P 500 sectors finish lower, Energy -1.04% and Real Estate -0.86% led decliners/ Health Care +0.53% outperformed

Commodities

Factors (YTD)

US Treasuries

 Notable Earnings Today  

  • +Beat: Stryker (SYK), Vertex (VRTX), Arista Networks (ANET), NXP (NXPI), ON Semiconductor (ON), Global Payments (GPN), WEC Energy (WEC), Global Payments (GPN), Hologic (HOLX),            MGM (MGM), Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH)
  • Miss: VICI Properties (VICI), Diamondback (FANG), Everest (RE), CNA Financial (CNA), Credit Acceptance (CACC), Sonoco Products (SON), Amkor (AMKR)
  • * Strong support – NVIDIA (NVDA), Analog Devices (ADI), Meta Platforms (META), Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOG,GOOGL), Broadcom (AVGO), Citigroup (C), BlackRock (BLK), Morgan Stanley (MS), Coca-Cola (KO)

Economic Data

US

  • S&P U.S. manufacturing PMI; period April, act 50.2, fc 50.4. prev. 49.2
  • ISM manufacturing; period April, act 47.1, fc 46.7%, prev. 46.3%
  • Construction spending; period March, act 0.3%, fc 0.0%, prev. -0.3%

News

Company News/ Other

  • Explainer: Why First Republic Bank failed and what JPMorgan’s deal means – Reuters
  • Meta to raise $8.5 billion in second bond offering – Reuters

Central Banks/Inflation/Labor Market

  • Fed Restrictions on Employee Stock Trading Not Strict Enough, Says Watchdog – WSJ
  • The Building Boom Is Prolonging Market Pain – WSJ

China

  • Why Chinese Banks Aren’t Worried About Depositors Fleeing – Bloomberg

 

Journal

VMSI INDEX

Cyclicals Lead, Hedging Slows, VMSI Signals Institutional Confidence Growing

July 24, 2025 | VICA Research — Volatility & Market Sentiment Index |  VICA Partners’ VMSI© (Volatility & Market Sentiment ...
VMSI INDEX

Housing Market: Late-Cycle Strain, Repricing Likely by 2026

Sources: National Association of REALTORS®, BLS, VMSI The U.S. housing market is showing clear late-cycle characteristics. Prices remain elevated, yet ...
News

Mandate Clarity Is Monetary Power

By VICA Partners | July 2025(Peer-reviewed by institutional market strategists and asset managers) The Federal Reserve’s policy efficacy is increasingly ...